World beyond COVID 19

EMERGING WORLD FROM COVID 19 EPIDEMIC

1.    When outbreak of Covid-19 has been declared a pandemic, onlookers of foreign policy implicated that the pandemic would have greater impact on the global order. However commonly those discussions end up being a consideration into the future predictions of the USA as superpower of the world and China replacing USA as global giant. Opinions have been raised both insisting that the impact of the China might grow on the world order on the one hand, and, on the other hand, that their influence is on its downhill. Global order and the likely changes to it on the other hand, the bigger question that concerns world is the anxiety of uncertainty that the pandemic has cultured in the minds of observers of global politics. It is needless to identify since the epidemic has changed many things globally, the world order would be immune to the pandemic. Since global order in constant reshuffling attends to apparent strands of multi-polarity, bipolarity and uni-polarity attached with multicolored relations between nation-states the point to concerned  today is whether the outbreak itself has converted in to an indication of a bigger alteration in the international system which has already occurred.

2.    According to the William Robinson in his famous publication on Social theory and Globalization, global order refers to the constellations of the power hierarchy amongst various nation-states at a marked point in time and space.(William,2001) That is to say, that global order and the international system  is relative and it is filtered by where one stands. Since the international political landscape is over and over again considered as disorganized and anarchic due to the lack of a governing body to world affairs. However, it would be incorrect to say that there is no necessarily framed outline to international politics. Global order, then becomes that framed- outline pattern that disrupts the chaotic landscape of international politics.  Ever since the fall of USSR, the conventional thinking declares that the global order has been unipolar – with the United States as the solitary superpower of the world. For the past 30 years, the world has been living under the US hegemony. In many ways, it could be argued that the domination of the USA is complete and that it cast a shadow on every aspect of our lives as US is controlling the main establishments that drive the global economy, USA is literally the controller of United Nations and specialized agencies, it also stimulate choices of the peoples who live very far remotely away from American continent. However, the US President Donald Trump is putting the blame for the WHO for “covering up” the crisis and halted funding America due to be paid to the global organization. This can be seen as a major admission of the fact that despite its political and economic influence, tides of neo-globalization have overtook the United States. The superpower of the whole world has ended up being the most severely affected nation by the Covid-19 pandemic.  There we can see the answer to the point that raise the concern, is Covid-19 a sign that the global order has transformed profoundly.

3.    The dawn of non-traditional security threats have widened the parameters of securitization once marked out by Barry Buzan under his Theory of Securitization.(2001) Then came the in the narratives of foreign policy and global order, 9/11 attack on twin towers which is usually seen as a moment of great change. Overnight the entire world has been changed  on that fateful day, that is what we learned. But what this chronicle made us not as was whether it had not happened before that and we abruptly found out the significance of nontraditional threat on that very day. Until then the main schools of thoughts of international relations and politics had a special focus on nation-states as main actors of the global game. However over the years, many events happen global sphere had shown that that was a miscalculation. The Munich Olympics episode, the Iran Hostage Crisis, all were significant signals that non-state actors could, if they wanted to, employ considerable power and obstruct security of nations and its constituents and wealth of the nation, that is her citizens. Even on that fateful day of September 2001, United States was preparing and all set for all kinds attacks which are full of technocracy. The American security was prepared for a inter-continental ballistic missile, they are more than prepared for an all-out invasion of an enemy of their principle that impeccable democracy.  It had the technical and physical ability to protect its national integrity from attacks a man can imaginable as major. What USA was not prepared was a simple case of breach of airport security. This was the tipping point, not the point of beginning. Terrorism had been a grave concern facing many states around the globe at the time, specially nations like Sri Lanka was experiencing the terrorism for 18 long years when the 9/11 happens. It took a 9/11 attack and 2000 plus their citizens  for the US to recognize the gravity of terrorism on national security.

4.    Similarly, the Covid-19 pandemic is a tipping point for the entire developed world and the world at large. In a way, COVID-19 is not  came as sudden surprise. It is not an unexpected calamity.  There were  more early warnings to the pandemic. The epidemics such as Ebola, Zika and sisters of the Covid 19 ,H1N1 and SARS appeared in the last decade, giving clear signals as to what to expect near future.The pandemic came at a point when majority analysts of foreign policy were assertive of the American power to secure its borders and its citizens from any kind of threat. The global war on terror which backed by US lead coalition forces showed us what globalization and liberal democracy can fix when they are heavily armed up to teeth. The technological advancements  on the 21st century among other things achieved a dramatic shrinking of the world – a process that is called globalization. The two institutions that atb the forefront of globalization – the World Bank and the IMF are nothing but, US led or US view on global view materializing entities. The very institutions have also prejudiced the global economic development since the cold war which US has considerably benefitted out of this, what has often been overlooked is how many other countries have benefitted by belittling the US effort. China, is unmistakably one of few.

5.    Even though over the years, the economic giant by the enormous labour force China has been consistently portrayed as an alternative center of power of the world , in which US hegemony, evaluated through the prisms of hard military power has been robust. Even though Trump was canvassing all around the USA to “make America great again”, in his last State of the Union Address, President Barack Obama triumphantly declared that as he nearing to the end of his presidency, “the Unites States of America is the most powerful nation on earth”.  Then who won the  presidential run and who became  his  successor, according to the SIPRI report, watch over and upsurge in its military expenditure for the first time in seven years in 2018. This was over three-times more than its nearest competitor – China. If this military arsenal were to be the understanding of power, then the US is still unquestioned and the world order is still stable and unchanged.

6.    Anne-Marie Slaughter, points out that power is diffused in networks and connections in the age of globalization,(2004) The most powerful are the ones  today  mostly well connected. She mimics this situation   to the symphony that a full band of orchestra produces – dissimilar harmonies from assorted instruments merging in a rhapsody as a consequence of effective coordination. Covid 19 consequence can be discussed in this context. The novel virus appeared in China in December 2019 in Wuhan a city which  is not  even amongst the five largest metropolis of China. As near past as January, a world renowned professor in virology in mainstream and later shared virally in social media believed that there was no need to panic on the situation. However, merely three months later, the most powerful nation of the world USA has emerged as the worst affected  nation with more than a quarter of the total cases reported. With the adamant of Huawei in 2020 again, the US supposed to take on China on trade, on foreign policy, on military might, but failed to secure her own people from a simple pandemic. Internal political arguments, delays in mechanism to start mass scale testing, shortage of essential medical supplies, failures to impose prompt social isolation has been considered as key failures are where USA led to catastrophic results in fighting the pandemic.

7.    The  pandemic broke out at a time where the Fourth Industrial Revolution which is called as (4IR) was beginning to be in motion where The technologies associated with 4IR were about to make a profound impact on the human behaviour at home, how mankind did business and communicated with each other. (Kiriwella,4 May 20)The long-term social and economic impact of the CORONA-19 pandemic must be viewed against the back drop as well as innovative contribution during pandemic to the technology of the emerging technologies of Robotics, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Virtual Reality, Internet of Things (IoT) and Machine-to-Machine Communication (M2M). In this modern history make, the CORONA-19 pandemic has all the potential it needed to be a historical turning point and a catalyst for a paradigm shift.

8.    Then the story of the pandemic is that of the nature and way of the global world. A apparently local problem in roots, has wrecked a global mayhem. Further, this pandemic stands as a litmus test of the reaches of power of China as a global influencer. No other continent excluding Antarctica has been left untouched. It is clearly shows the extent of Chinese influence and a changed world order. The SARS outbreak affected only as few as approximately 8000 people from about 30 nations ten years ago. However the magnitude the disaster we are experiencing today is much different and menacing. Three million affected and counting yet in more than a hundred and fifty countries and counting yet.  Further china’s material assistance during pandemic  to other countries represents its foreign policy agenda of accomplishing a broader manifestation in global control and ascendency. The European Union (EU) which is find reasons to disintegrate in the face of the epidemic to save individual health sectors from failing is receiving large swathes of medical supplies; Dark continent yet not dark in this global pandemic, Africa obtains similar donations by  Jack Ma’s Foundation and our own Sri Lanka has recognized an inflow loan of $500 million from China. The beneficiary list goes on with the post of ventilators, respirators, protective gear and medical teams all around the globe. Further, for Iran and Italy, China has shown she can be trusted and ready to offer hand in all dire situations. Chinese mask diplomacy going to make  for the initially blunders it committed by Shanghai authorities silencing the initial reported medical professionals of Hubei. Speaking of medical supplies, even in prior to the arrival of COVID 19, China was the major contributor for the production of surgical masks and PPE.

9.    Yet many anticipated, in a personal note, the global order will not going to be changed drastically  after Covid-19 outbreak, but the outbreak itself is going to be popular indication of the changed order which are happened in a small scale during previous decades.  In a very first note, the pandemic is going to be an opportune reminder that while borders, fences or separating walls like Trump promised during campaign  are carefully erected, manned and patrolled zones, these all are likely to be penetrated. Borders, oceans in contemporary world have demonstrated to be a letdown to contain the epidemic. This loomed the question that how best the super powers to weaker nations contain their borders.

10.    Further the pandemic has also brings out the unpopular, unattended argument of   non-western scholars of foreign policy. The world cannot be divided and plotted into immaculate categories of developed, developing and underdeveloped world. There can be pinches of the developed world in the developing and the underdeveloped and vice-versa. The missed and poor  affair of (mis)management of the pandemic in the supra power of the world  is a obvious example of this predicament of the developed and the developing/underdeveloped. USA is yet recording the most number of cases and deaths whilst the mechanism to protect her citizen on a string. The pandemic has revealed that  bases and proxies of uncertainties are not located in high tech combat ships, aeroplanes ,missiles and defence capabilities of opposing nations but in matters of health and livelihood or deficiency of them in general.

REFERENCES

Awan, H. T. (2020, April 20). COVID 19 and the Emerging World Order. Retrieved from https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/04/21/covid-19-and-the-emerging-world-order/

BUZAN, B (2009). Macrosecuritisation and security constellations: Reconsidering scale in securitisation theory. Review of International Studies, 35(2), 253-276. doi:10.1017/S0260210509008511 

Kiriwella G on Jayawardane, I. (n.d.). A glimpse into post COVID-19 world. Retrieved from http://www.dailynews.lk/2020/05/04/features/217846/glimpse-post-covid-19-world

Robinson, W. (2001). Social Theory and Globalization: The Rise of a Transnational State. Theory and Society, 30(2), 157-200. Retrieved May 22, 2020, from www.jstor.org/stable/657872

Slaughter, Anne-Marie (2004) A New World Order Princeton, Princeton University Press

E056849. (2020, May 21). Sustainability, key to the new global order in the post-Covid-19 world. Retrieved from https://www.bbva.com/en/tr/sustainability-key-to-the-new-global-order-in-the-post-covid-19-world/

( Source of the image: Ceylon today.lk)